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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround is handed the award. In reality, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or merely the most shocking surprise.

But the current competition is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime strugglers rising collectively. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and fun season, he's up against five other elite candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to display his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack built solely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to spin big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still